Kamala Harris Ties Trump in State He Won Twice—Polling Average

Vice President Kamala Harris is tied with former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a state he won twice in past elections, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
Democrats last won North Carolina at the presidential level in 2008 when former President Barack Obama carried the state as part of his landslide national victory. Although Republicans have won it in the last three elections, it is still viewed as potentially competitive as margins remain close. In 2020, Trump won the state by 1.3 percentage points (49.9 to 48.6 percent) against President Joe Biden.
RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate on Friday showed North Carolina as being a “tie,” with recent polls showing Harris and Trump having a roughly equal chance of carrying it in November.
The aggregate cites two polls showing Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump.
A New York Times/Siena College survey, conducted among 655 likely voters from August 8 to 14, showed Harris leading Trump 46 to 44 percent. Meanwhile, a Cook Political Report poll, conducted among 403 likely voters from July 26 to August 2, also showed Harris leading the former president 46 to 44 percent.
It also cited two recent surveys that showed Trump leading Harris.
A Carolina Journal survey, which polled 600 likely voters from August 4 to 5, showed Trump leading the vice president by three points (47 to 44 percent). A Bloomberg poll, conducted among 706 registered voters from July 24 to 28, showed Trump leading by 1 point (45 to 44 percent).
Newsweek has reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average also shows Harris and Trump roughly tied in North Carolina. It gives Harris a slight 0.2 point advantage in the state. Harris also holds a narrow lead in The Hill’s polling aggregate, which has her at 48 percent and Trump at 46.9 percent on average.
Earlier this week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball reclassified North Carolina as a “toss-up” from “Leans Republican” as polls show her gain ground in the state.
Harris held a rally in Raleigh earlier this month as she toured swing states across the country.
While Republicans have won North Carolina in recent presidential races, the state does have a Democratic Governor, Roy Cooper. He is retiring at the end of the year, and recent polls show Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leading Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson leading the race to replace him.
North Carolina also has two Republican senators, Thom Tillis and Ted Budd. There is no Senate race in the state this year.
Harris has improved her polling at the national level and in key swing states since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket. Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 as polls showed him trailing Trump in key battleground states following his poor debate performance against him in June.
While Harris previously had similar polls, her candidacy generated new enthusiasm among Democrats and led to her breaking fundraising records, giving Democrats new optimism about their chances of victory in November.